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February 16, 2006

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The Historical Nexus

Dear Readers:

I am not an expert on world and international affairs. I make no pretense to be able to look into a crystal ball. I'm just an old soldier looking at what seem to be obvious facts.

You may wish to read the editorial 3/13/2003 before reading this.

It is my belief that there are times in human events when we lose the ability to control our own destiny. We have entered just such a period.

An attack on Iran is inevitable. The U.S. will take this action because it would create even more problems in the Middle East if Israel were to do it - and Israel would do it if there was any hesitation on the part of the Americans. It will be done. Russia and China will threaten but, the U.S. cannot permit Israel to carry out the attack - it would completely destabilize the Middle East.

Russia and China like having the U.S. preoccupied with Iran and North Korea. We are enemies taking a half-time break. All know they will return to the battlefield to fight against each other in the future - the not too distant future.

Iran is a potential giant. The nuclear weapon issue is as unimportant as was the WMD issue in Iraq. Iran must be neutralized in order to prevent its rise to dominance in the region. Ground troops cannot be used. The 200,000 person U.S. military would be no match for the millions Iran could field against them. First, the nuclear facilities, then the military infrastructure, and finally the civilian infrastructure will be targeted. All must be accomplished by air.

Beyond Iran - the real issue is China. China is going to dominate the world in the coming century - and perhaps beyond. What remains to be seen is the manner of this domination and the manner of the American adjustment to it.

The United States reached its highest level of world influence just before its invasion of Afghanistan. Since that point it has begun to lose the initiative. Like ancient Rome, the Americans have reached the limit of their ability to fund military expansion on a continuous level around the globe. They have much to do in the next few years - but they will diminish in power and control.

The next American president will be female. Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2008. There is only one other American who can defeat her. That person is Condoleeza Rice.

Rice will be a reluctant candidate. It seems apparent that she is uncomfortable with the position. She has no choice. Only she can rob Clinton of the powerful demographics that would otherwise make her unbeatable. Rice splits the female vote and takes away much of the black democratic vote. She also retains conservative support form the Republican party because even the red necks that would otherwise never vote for a black candidate cannot vote for an ultra-liberal Clinton - or split their vote and allow a Clinton win.

I expect that Dick Cheney will retire several months before the end of his term and allow President Bush to appoint Rice as his interim Vice-President. This will increase Rice's credibility as a presidential candidate and give her the added initiative of being an incumbent - the only one in the race.

Condoleeza Rice will be the next American president. She will, on the day she takes her oath of office, rank with Washington, Lincoln, FDR, and Kennedy. She will be the first female president and the first black president.

The only way Rice could avoid this fate would be because Clinton withdraws. Rice might not defeat a white, male democrat.

President Bush will begin the reduction of Iran before he leaves office. President Rice will preside over the continuation of this action.

The Editor