Iran-Based Al Qaeda Threat Much Closer than Shehab-3

DEBKAfile Special Analysis

July 22, 2003, 9:30 AM (GMT+02:00)

Israel has more cause for concern from the presence of senior al Qaeda operatives in Iran than from the prospect of Iran shooting a Shehab-3 medium-range missile any time soon, despite the handover ceremony Iran’s bellicose spiritual leader Ali Khamenei staged with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on July 20. According to DEBKAfile’s military experts, the missile is not yet operational; neither is it precise enough or capable of delivering an unconventional warhead. The Shehab-3 will need another two years at least to be ready for service. Only then, will Israel’s anti-missile Arrow missile system be required to live up to the Israeli defense minister Shaul Mofaz’s encomium, that the Arrow is Israel’s answer to the Iranian missile.

Meanwhile, the Shehab-3 is meanwhile grounded by two daunting obstacles:

A. The final version of the missile’s engine is far from complete; tests are still running on various North Korean versions including the Nodong-1 upgraded with Russian technology and Iranian improvements. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that Iranian missile engineers and operators went to North Korea at the end of June to speed delivery of the new engine parts ordered and paid for last year, after the first version engine proved faulty. Some of the missiles test-fired crashed shortly after launch.

While pressing for delivery of the engine parts, Tehran is cocking an anxious ear to the war of words flying between Washington and Pyongyang. Iran’s leaders fear that sooner or later the disputants will come to an understanding over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program rather than letting it slide into outright confrontation. For Iran’s program, this spells curtains in more than one way.

1. The moment North Korea’s nuclear program accepts a regime of controls and limitations, the full blast of international heat, especially from Washington, will veer round to compel the Iranians to fall in line and give up the development of a nuclear bomb.

2. North Korea will be bound under such an agreement by non-proliferation clauses banning the export of nuclear and missile technologies alike. Once the Pyongyang door is slammed, Iran can forget about North Korean assistance in bringing its ballistic missile engines up to scratch. Tehran is therefore racing to get what it can out of North Korea before Pyongyang resoles its dispute with the Washington.

B. The Iranian program faces another major hurdle. Their twin object is to produce enough enriched uranium for the manufacture of nuclear bombs and warheads by the latter half of 2005, also completing the development of dependable engines for their ballistic missiles in the same time frame. If all goes according to plan, Tehran will by that date have a nuclear weapon plus several missiles for delivering it. However, it is hard to imagine the United States and/or Israel allowing the Islamic Republic to reach that point unopposed.

These difficulties place the Shehab-3 menace in the middle distance and bring the Iran-based al Qaeda threat to the Middle East including Israel into much sharper focus.

The thinking in Jerusalem is that since the Islamic theocrats did not scruple to give al Qaeda logistical backing from their towns for the May 12 string of suicide attacks against Riyadh, they will be as willing to help the same terrorists mount strikes against Israel. Tuesday, July 22, Tehran again denied granting the network’s leading lights sanctuary, contradicting President George W. Bush’s accusation the day before that Syria and Iran harbored and assisted terrorists. He also warned them they would be held accountable.

No one knows for sure if Iran’s al Qaeda “guests” are enjoying a comfortable form of detention or are preparing the next wave of terrorist attacks with local connivance. (See also earlier DEBKAfile story on this page.) The theory going round some circles in Washington is that Iran’s logistical aid in the Riyadh attacks was meant to hint to the US government at the extent of damage the Iranians are capable of causing US interests in Iraq and other parts of the Middle East if the heat is not reduced on the nuclear issue.

Israel is keeping a very close eye on the Jordanian-born terror master Mussab Zarqawi, who just before the Iraq War was assigned, according to Israeli security sources, with executing a 9/11-scale attack in Israel. Six months ago, Zarqawi was sighted several times in Damascus, Beirut and places in Western Europe. He always went back to Iran after what are believed to have been recruiting missions for the attack from among the al Qaeda group sheltering in southern Lebanon and operatives who infiltrated Israel and the West Bank.

Zarqawi could not have moved around south Lebanon without the knowledge and assent of Syrian army intelligence and the Iran-backed Hizballah.

There is nothing to say that Zarqawi back in Iran ever gave up preparing for his Israel assignment. If such an operation is indeed afoot, then the Iran-based al Qaeda would be a greater and more tangible threat to Israel than any semi-functioning Iranian missile.

US-Israel Postscript

DEBKAfile’s Washington sources disclose that President Bush’s accusations against Syria and Iran on Monday were also meant for the ears of Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, who has been invited for talks in the White House on July 29. On Friday, July 25, the Palestinian prime minister Mahmoud Abbas will be received by the US president in Washington for the first time. He is coming with a shopping list, at the top of which is a demand that Israel free a large number of terrorists from its prisons, including terrorists “with blood on their hands” and Hamas and Jihad Islami members.

Sharon, limited by government decisions from setting the latter categories loose, sought to create a diversion by developing an independent peace channel to Damascus. By attacking Syria as a sponsor of terrorists, Bush effectively blocked Sharon’s ploy. The implication is that if the Israeli leader is not too squeamish to do business with hard-line regimes like that of Bashar Assad which harbor al Qaeda and Hamas and Jihad Islami command centers, it can certainly bring itself to make concessions to the non-terrorist Abbas and his interior minister Dahlan.

There are indications that the Bush administration is cross with Sharon for his Syrian initiative and, to make things worse, using a UN official, Middle East envoy Terje Roed-Larsen as his go-between. Bush has no great love for UN officials and even less for surprises, especially when they come from Sharon who until now worked in perfect harmony with the White House.

From the US capital, the Israeli prime minister is seen to be shutting out of his counsels his defense and foreign ministers, Shaul Mofaz and Silvan Shalom - both of whom he has found indiscreetly forthcoming to the media on government policy, and barricading himself behind a hard shell in readiness for his White House talks. Quite aside from the real concerns posed by al Qaeda in Iran, Syria and Lebanon, Bush advisers are intent on cracking the Israeli leader’s shell so as to bring him round to advancing the concessions on the list brought by Palestinian leaders.

Elections in Kuwait

One day before Assad published his Decree 408, Kuwait held a general election for its 50-seat National Assembly – a general election only in Gulf terms, meaning 85 percent of the population is ineligible to vote - women, new citizens and members of the armed forces. This time, hundreds of Kuwaiti women refused to take their disenfranchisement lying down and staged a mock election to vent their feelings. Thus America’s leading ally in the war against Iraq is probably the least democratic. The ruling al-Sabah family succeeded in shaving the already marginal liberal party’s representation down from 14 to three, while the fundamentalist Islamists improved their standing by one seat to 21. The only concession the rulers made was to end the practice whereby the post of prime minister goes automatically to the crown prince. Now any Kuwait can get the job – on condition he is sponsored by the royal family.

Syria departs Lebanon

After 27 years in Lebanon, the Syrian army is completing its evacuation of the country, including even the strategic Beirut-Damascus highway. Some 40,000 Syrian troops have retired from the country, barring a small pocket in the eastern Beqaa Valley abutting the Syrian frontier, where DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Beirut sources report two armored brigades are stationed to guard the routes from Lebanon to the Syrian capital. The rest of the Syrian Lebanese garrison has been redeployed on the Syrian side of the border.

President Bashar Assad and his administration were not eager to pull their forces out of Lebanon, but decided it would be the cheapest way to appease the Americans after discovering an American-Saudi plan to transform Lebanon from a country torn by civil strife and dominated by armed militias, including the Hizballah, into a state with an orderly central government and armed forces, fit to regain its old pre-1975 civil war position as financial and banking center of the Middle East. This transformation would not have worked under Syrian-Hizballah domination, especially with the latter branded by Washington a terrorist organization with links to al Qaeda.

Assad hopes that the Bush administration will show its gratitude by forgiving Syria’s other misdeeds, such as its sponsorship of 10m Palestinian terrorist organizations and its intervention in Iraq. He asked Egyptian president Mubarak this week to intercede with Washington in his favor as well persuading the Middle East Quartet to give him a place on the Palestinian-Israel road map to peace.

The Syrian ruler, though unlikely to be let off lightly, might have gained points from his army’s exit from Lebanon had he acted in good faith. However, according to our sources, he assigned General Rustum Ghazaleh, head of Syria’s intelligence station in Lebanon, to set up a joint Syrian-Lebanese network with the Lebanese internal security chief, Gamal al Sayed that will maintain Syria’s intelligence grip on Lebanon and set limits for the US-Saudi hold on Beirut.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and counter-terror sources have discovered the Hizballah matching Syria’s military movements by rolling up its positions and removing many of its lookout posts along the Israeli frontier and avoiding outright provocations of Israel. But, like the Syrians, the Hizballah may be changing its tactics, but not its goals or ways. General secretary Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, is in the midst of a struggle for control of the smuggling routes of drugs, arms and money inside Lebanon and across the Middle East and Persian Gulf. He looks like achieving his objective in the short term thanks to the powerful and far-flung intelligence network the terrorist organization maintains in the region, in North and South America, Europe and Western and Eastern Africa. But he and Hizballah’s Iranian and Syrian sponsors are at the same time pumping fighting strength, explosives and cash into Palestinian areas in the West bank and Gaza Strip, and sleeper cells into Israeli Arab communities. The new Syrian-Hizballah deployments have therefore had the effect of bringing Damascus-based Palestinian terrorists and the Hizballah threat much deeper in Palestinian territory and positioned for menacing Israel at point-blank range. Thus far, Washington has not responded.

Terrorist leaders return to Damascus

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terrorism sources revealed on July 4 the return of Hamas leaders Khaled Mashal and Musa Abu Marzuk and Ramadan Abdallah Shalah, head of the Iranian-backed Islamic Jihad, to Damascus last week. Their Syrian bases were reopened notwithstanding the Syrian president’s assurances to Washington in late April 2003 that the terrorists’ command centers had been shut down and their leaders sent out of Damascus.

The fact of the matter is that not a single command center had stopped operating. For a short time, the top terrorists traveled outside Damascus now and again, often giving their media interviews from Lebanon or Qatar. However, this week, even that pretence was abandoned when President Bashar Assad personally requested their return to their old operational headquarters in the Syrian capital. He needed them close at hand to execute his latest plan of action.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terrorism sources reveal that the Syrian leader asked Hamas and Islamic Jihad to send their operations officers over to Syrian military intelligence headquarters to work with his liaison officers on the drafting of “urgent” operational plans for smuggling terrorist infiltrators into the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Israel.

Their mission: To carry out multi-casualty terrorist attacks against Israeli targets. The Syrian president believes the operational interaction of terrorist squads from Lebanon and Syria with Yasser Arafat’s Tanzim and Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades squads in the main cities of the West Bank will produce a convulsion violent enough to torpedo the Bush’s peace plan and bring Abbas’ reformist government crashing down.

Bent on his anti-American course, the Syrian ruler plans to step up guerrilla attacks to sabotage the Iraq-Turkish oil pipeline from northern Iraq to the Mediterranean, as well as its anti-American hate propaganda.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources count more anti-American Syrian actions as they come to light.

A. Interrogations of Iraqis and Syrians caught on the Iraqi-Syrian frontier have yielded evidence that East Syrian towns are transit points for Saddam Hussein’s top officials who come and go at will. Syrian banks are furthermore the main conduit for the movement of hundreds of millions of dollars from the old regime for use in a wide range of activities, including military operations against American forces. The Syrians are charging an arm and a leg for every individual Iraqi or group crossing the border – a sort of transit tax. The money helps compensate Syria for revenue lost when the United States shut down the Iraqi-Syrian oil pipeline.

B. Syrian channels of communications serve to keep Saddam and his sons abreast of developments in Iraq whenever they are out of the country and the outside world when they are back home.

C. From messages and documents such as travel papers, birth certificates and passports – all carrying official stamps but with identification details left blank – found on captured couriers, the role of the Belarus embassy in Damascus has come into sharper focus. It has become a sort of intelligence-logistical center catering to all the needs of Saddam, his sons and top Iraqis.

D. Some 50 to 100 senior Iraqis are currently in Syria.

E. Just as Syria is a byway station for Saddam’s clique, Damascus international airport is a useful way station for Al Qaeda commanders moving around the Middle East and Gulf.

Damascus has not only become the mainline hub of anti-American opposition forces in the region, Syria is constantly raising the stakes of its campaign against Washington.

US seeks stolen jet (As of Jan. 10, 2004 still not found)
From correspondents in Washington
June 19, 2003

THE United States today said it was working with African nations to hunt down a 727 passenger jet stolen in Angola last month, amid fears it may be used in a reprise of the September 11 attacks.

"The United States government is working with governments in Africa trying to cooperate, to seek any information that is available on the potential location" of the plane, said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer.

"We don't have any reliable assessments about what this portends, what it could be, who may be behind it.

"But it is an issue that is being worked on in the federal government."

The Washington Post reported today that the CIA and the US State Department had joined in the continent-wide search for the aircraft, which US authorities said was likely stolen as part of a business dispute or financial scam.

A less likely, but far more chilling scenario, is that the plane was either stolen by terrorists or could end up in their hands for an attack like the 2001 strikes by Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, US officials told the Post.

The 28-year-old jetliner was stolen from under the noses of Luanda airport's control tower on May 25 and has not been sighted since. It had been parked at the airport for 14 months.

06/03/03  DEBKAfile reports from its intelligence sources that Abu Mazen and Dahlan worked hard to concoct some sort of ceasefire in time for the Aqaba summit – not by going to the heads of the Palestinian terror groups, but straight to the chiefs of local terror squads. It was not as difficult as they pretended to the Americans and the Israelis. As an Israeli security source told DEBKAfile’s sources, Dahlan and his people had more than a passing acquaintance with each and every one of these squad chiefs, enough to knock on their doors and even reach them in their hideouts.

In return for holding their fire for roughly three months, they were offered: 1. An Israeli pledge of immunity from reprisals backed up by US-Arab guarantee. 2. US dollar cash payouts made to each squad leader and its members. 3. Assured employment with the new Palestinian security force at a monthly wage. 4. A personal undertaking by Abu Mazen and Dahlan for the release of their co-terrorists from Israeli prisons.

The way this “ceasefire” was achieved finally exploded the myth put about by Abu Mazen - and widely accepted - that the Hamas and Islamic Jihad have set up a formidable terrorist infrastructure on the West Bank, the dismantling of which will be a tall order and take time.

It transpired that the Hamas retains no more than four senior operations in West bank towns, and Jihad Islami only one. DEBKAfile has discovered the identity of the senior Hamas mastermind on the West Bank: Ahmed Saad of Nablus.

When Abbas and Dahlan were asked how the two Islamic groups were able to carry out daily strikes with so little manpower, they explained that when they wanted to stage an attack, they simply hired suicide hit teams from Arafat’s Fatah, Tanzim or al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades for an agreed fee.

In other words, the only functioning terrorist infrastructure on the West Bank belongs to Yasser Arafat, which in addition to carrying out its own operations, also subcontracts for the two Islamic groups.

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06/03/03 - Iran’s transfer of al Qaeda units to Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge for the infiltration of Chechnya may look from Washington like a concession by Tehran to help consolidate the Bush administration’s future plans for Iraq and the Persian Gulf. To bin Laden, it is a first-rate tactical achievement. After his deadly assault on Riyadh last month, his men were not hunted down but moved to Eastern Europe from which vantage point they are free to move swiftly between such flashpoints as Macedonia, Kosovo, Albania and Chechnya. Well supplied with weapons and cash, it is only a hop and a jump for them to central and West Europe, thence onto North America.

Saddam Hussein and Sons. No one is mentioning them much these days and speculation on their whereabouts has died down. DEBKAfile reports exclusively from its intelligence sources that Saddam Hussein and Qusay have wound up in Libya at a location north of Tripoli, while Uday Hussein has made his home base in the Belarussian capital of Minsk, from which he makes trips to the Middle East and Africa.

Recent reports that Uday is negotiating surrender terms with the Americans from a hideout in Iraq are designed to lure him into giving himself up.

Saddam’s presence in Libya is significant in two ways:

1. The deposed Iraqi ruler is busy. From a safe distance, he is orchestrating almost daily clashes between US forces and Baathists in different parts of Iraq – and they are costing the lives of American troops. He too is encouraged by the ongoing Washington-Tehran diplomatic track and sees how it can work to his advantage. The deal over Iraq’s Shiites, 55 percent of the population, will intensify the community’s innate xenophobia. They may be coreligionists of the rulers of Tehran, but Iraqi Shiites are averse to foreign rule, be it Iranian or American, and aspire to the same model of self-government gained by the Kurds of northern Iraq. This objective does not figure in either the US or the Iranian game plan, so when the American forces announced last week that Kurdish tribal militias would be permitted to keep their weapons, but not the Shiites, they sowed the seeds of future civil discord in Iraq.

Saddam’s hopes rest on the prospects of igniting a civil war among Iraq’s Shiites, Kurds, Sunnis and the smaller ethnic minorities. He has concluded that America does not have enough troops in Iraq to put down any major internal flare-up.

2. The exiled Iraqi ruler pays the wages of 400 Iraqi scientists to stay in Libya and work in the Libyan-Egyptian nuclear industry and their development of chemical and biological weapons.

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Russia informs Tehran no more fuel for Bushehr nuclear center until Iran permits international inspections of all its nuclear facilities

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report: Saudi wins out over al Qaeda in Medina: Al Qaeda local operatives notified superiors by telephone that Saudi security killed two of four terrorists cornered in Medina - Ali Bin Khudeir, rated by counter-terror experts as leader of Riyadh suicide attacks who entered Saudi Arabia from northern Iraq, and Ali Khalidi. Two others escaped.

Bin Laden discovered in e-mail traffic Wednesday afternoon to have convened hasty leadership meeting and issued immediate threat of revenge against Saudi rulers

Bush will arrive in Middle East Monday. White House says he will see King Abdullah in Aqaba Wednesday and also Sharon and Abbas “if environment is ripe for productive talks.” He will meet Arab leaders separately at Sharm first and review US troops in Qatar Thursday

Abu Mazen and Sharon finally get to meet Thursday to lay groundwork for summit with Bush

DEBKAfile’s Palestinian sources: After tying Palestinian PM’s hands, Arafat lets him go ahead to meet Bush and Sharon. He calculates those encounters no longer pose threat to his position or strategy.

He is focusing now on coordinating terrorist arms of Hamas, Fatah-Tanzim and al Aqsa Brigades to synchronize next wave of violence that will torpedo any progress reached at Aqaba summit

Hamas leader Sheikh Yassin offers to weigh temporary ceasefire if Israel ceases military anti-terror action and frees all prisoners. DEBKAfile: Arafat and Yassin join forces to prove pace of events is not set by Abbas and Dahlan

Earlier, Arafat tied Abbas’s hands by calling PLO Executive into session Tuesday to confirm Arafat’s guideline to Abu Mazen vis a vis Bush and Sharon.

DEBKAfile’s Palestinian sources reveal he is told to insist Israel carry out road map provisions without delay - quit Palestinian towns, release frozen funds and reopen Palestinian offices in Jerusalem. The Palestinians will take their time.

Read earlier report of Arafat's delaying tactics in DEBKAfile Exclusive Report below

IDF special forces capture two senior Tanzim terror operatives Tamer Rimawi and Ali Aliyan - formerly sheltered by Arafat in his Ramallah headquarters. Wanted men holed up for hours in building in nearby Betunya. Israeli troops fired rockets and stormed building to get them out

Spanish foreign minister Ana Palacio calls on Arafat and Abu Mazen in Ramallah Wednesday

White House postpones from Tuesday to Thursday decisive consultation on tough measures against Iran’s nuclear program. Fleischer charges Tehran not doing enough to turn in al Qaeda terrorists: Tehran accuses US of interfering in internal affairs.

Read DEBKAfile Special Report below

Cambodia breaks up Islamic terror plot, charges an Egyptian and 2 Thais detained in mosque north of Phnom Penh with preparing terror wave in name of radical Jemaah Islimiah. Group accused of receiving al Qaeda funds from Saudi Arabia through Pakistani middleman

Putin and Chinese president Hu Jintao announce launch of $2.5b pipeline to carry Siberian oil into China. Two leaders sign declaration calling for central UN role in Iraq and a multi-polar world order. Moscow was Hu’s first destination as new Chinese president

Major setbacks for American reconstruction efforts in Iraq dealt by Indian and Japanese refusals to send military forces for policing duties in various parts of country.

Tony Blair due to visit Kuwait and British troops in Iraq Thursday

Qatar-based al Jazeera TV network sacks Mohammed al-Ali, chief executive since station founded in 1996. US alleged three Iraqi agents on station staff on basis of documents found in war.

Amid heavy security, Jerusalem celebrates 36th anniversary of reunification after Six Day War Wednesday night with big farmers parade, Mayor’s open house and free bus rides to the route. Downtown will be closed to vehicular traffic.

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Wednesday, May 21, 2003
Rumsfeld: Al-Qaeda Busy In Iran

Bin Laden Strikes again - in Riyadh

DEBKAfile Special Report

May 13, 2003, 3:16 PM (GMT+02:00)

According to DEBKAfile’s terror experts, this fresh offensive has not been orchestrated by a new al Qaeda leadership as has been claimed; Bin Laden and his veteran lieutenant, the Egyptian Dr. Ayman Zuwahri are still firmly in the saddle. Our sources concur that Monday night’s strikes in Riyadh were the opening shots of an extensive terror campaign. Recruits discovered in the fundamentalist network’s ranks in the last two weeks include Muslim-Americans, Muslim-Canadians and Saudi army troops who have gone over to al Qaeda. Clearly, the terrorist organization’s command capabilities – far from declining, show improved operational skills, undiminished by the capture of key al Qaeda figures in recent months, especially in Pakistan. The intelligence obtained from those captives did not forewarn American counter-terror agencies against al Qaeda’s coming plans.

According to the latest information reaching us, the strike teams in Riyadh also numbered Iraqi and Yemeni terrorists.

After midnight Monday, May 12, Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda network struck the United States and Saudi Arabia with devastating effect. In a multiple, multi-layered terrorist operation plotted as carefully as any military raid, small suicide squads hit three gated and guarded estates housing westerners in Riyadh and an American-Saudi partnership office - hours before US secretary of state Colin Powell flew in for a visit. The perpetrators displayed high skills in planning, intelligence, mobility and execution.

The elite locations populated by foreign expatriates including many Americans that came under attack were Garnata, Cordoba and Ishbiliya. All sheltered behind concrete walls, electronic detectors and automatic sensors, their two or three gates guarded by armed men who opened cement road barriers only to vehicles whose drivers presented keys with the correct coded electronic signal. Drivers of unidentified cars had to step out and approach the guards who searched them and their vehicles.

The terrorists overcame this formidable security system by having several small teams strike at different points in each estate with ferocious fire and explosive power. While one group killed the guards and smashed the gates, one or more Mercedes packed with explosives and suicide terrorists drove round the other side and rammed the estates’ perimeter walls. The next team drove into the estates through the hole. Once in, vehicles loaded with cans of gasoline as well as explosives blasted high-rise buildings, killing many of their residents and leveling entire streets. Another group of terrorists rode into the damaged compounds and massacred survivors by spraying the interiors of still standing buildings with automatic fire, hand grenades and fuel bombs. Some witnesses heard the firing going on 10 minutes after the explosions. When their ammunition ran out, the killers detonated bomb belts.

No definitive official information has been released thus far on casualties. DEBKAfile’s counter-terror experts estimate a very high toll running to scores. After the first-wave assaults, few could have survived the fierce heat and vacuum generated in their apartments by the second-wave gasoline blasts which tore the façades off their buildings and sucked them out.

This method was a replay of the al Qaeda tactic first seen seven years ago when a truck bomb crashed into the Khobar Towers housing the US military personnel (with families) securing the oil fields of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Provinces. The unofficial toll then was put at 19 American servicemen killed and 500 injured - some very gravely. To this day, no American or Saudi official has openly attributed that atrocity to al Qaeda. However, it is hard to miss the re-appearance in Riyadh of the same expertise and operational features as were exhibited in Khobar.

The latest outrages tie in closely with the shootout between Saudi security and a large group of terrorists that took place in the Saudi capital less than a week ago on May 7. Saudi intelligence sources admit this was the fourth battle Saudi security men had fought with terrorists in Riyadh in recent weeks, but the first three were never officially released. Even in reporting the last clash, the Saudi ministry of interior focused mainly on the large cache seized of explosives, weapons and ammunition, although it could not avoid publicizing the names and photos of the 19 gunmen who got away, 17 of them Saudi nationals. So acute is the security crisis in the Saudi capital that for the first time ever, its police published an appeal for public help in capturing the wanted men, including even a cash reward.

Subsequent leaks from Saudi sources showed the incident to have been more dangerous and audacious than first reported: an attempt by Al Qaeda to assassinate the pro-American Saudi defense minister Prince Sultan, third in the line of succession to the throne, and his brother, Interior Minister Prince Naif, who is also in command of internal security in the kingdom. DEBKAfile has not confirmed this account, but has discovered that the large-scale battle in Riyadh on May 7 was not the start of the episode but its outcome. The assailants did indeed mount an assassination attempt against “a leading Saudi figure” the day before on May 6. The battle developed after the plot was aborted and the assassins were in flight from pursuit.

By then, neither the Saudi nor American security authorities could overlook the fact that Riyadh was teeming with many hundreds of al Qaeda operatives preparing for a fresh offensive against US and Saudi targets. Oil fields and facilities, airports and airliners are now believed to be in their sights.

DEBKAfile November 30, 2002 - Our experts report that a heavy concentration of al Qaeda terrorists lives in the fishing villages along the eastern coast of Somalia between Kismoayo port and Ras Kaambooni, near the Kenya border. Among them are several hundred extremists who fought in Afghanistan in the winter of 2001 and early 2002. This strip is not controlled by the Somali extremist group Al Ittihad al Islamiya. Contrary to various reports, the team that struck twice in Mombasa last Thursday is not hiding under Ittihad protection. Al Qaeda and Egyptian Jihad Islami operatives prefer to throw off pursuit and preserve their operational autonomy by scattering among the Somali population and the swarming local religious militias and cells. They rarely operate from Ittihad bases, except in the Baydhabo region, which is far from the Kenyan border.

Military, intelligence and counter-terror sources report that the mixed FBI-CIA-Mossad-Kenyan police investigating team has already picked up a trail leading to two master planners: Fazul, the leader of al Qaeda’s East African cells since 1995, and his lieutenant Abdullah Ahmad Abdullah (aka Abu Mohammed al-Masri), who was indicted in absentia by an American court for the embassy bombings. Both are senior members of al Qaeda’s operational arm, the Egyptian Jihad Islami.