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US Snipers in Iraq  01/02/03

Saddam Hussein in Iraq – More than a Taped Voice     Image of Baghdad, Iraq

From DEBKA-Net-Weekly Updated by DEBKAfile

July 12, 2003, 6:12 PM (GMT+02:00)

The US troop withdrawal from the Iraqi town of Falluja only 50 km west of Baghdad on Friday, July 1, is the first major American military retreat since going to war against Iraq on March 18, 2003. It comes amid spiraling attacks on US troops by “unidentified” snipers and ambushers and follows what sounds like the voice of Saddam Hussein announcing his return to Iraq on two audio-tapes and calling Iraqis out to fight the Americans.

While American sources present the pullback as limited to Falluja police station, DEBKAfile’s military sources report it is more extensive. In effect, US Falluja unit is in the process of redeploying outside the town. This is one surface symptom, but not the only one, that American forces and elements loyal to Saddam Hussein are building up to a significant military clash. Territorial positions are taking shape - as will be seen on the DEBKAfile Special map attached to this article.

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DEBKA-Net-Weekly No. 116 describes the forces mustered by Saddam Hussein as consisting of elements of the Special Republican Guards, Fedayeen Saddam suicides, Baath militiamen and thousands of Syrian fighters arriving in a constant stream. It is more than probable that Saddam and his two sons are very much present in underground fortresses built after the 1991 Gulf War and conducting the current campaign against US troops in person, assisted by officers who commanded the Special Republican Guards Divisions in the March-April War.

These assaults are reciprocal. US forces are initiating military action too under their new commander, US Army General John Abizaid, who took over from Gen. Tommy Franks on July 7. Such forays are mostly unreported. Our military experts judge the clashes flaring with increasing frequency in the last few days in Baghdad, the towns of Balad, Ramadi and Falluja to the north and northwest, and the Al Qaim region on the Syrian border, to be probes in which both sides are testing the mettle of the opposition in advance of the main action.

The 10 to 15 daily attacks mounted against US troops every day by the Iraqi resistance attests impressively to military professionalism. Their objectives are clear: To dampen American troop morale by building up the casualty score and, more importantly, to repel American military incursions into an enclave beneath whose surface Saddam and his allies lurk in their underground fortress cities.

This enclave ranges from the city of Samarra, about 70 miles (110 km) northwest of Baghdad to a point some 35 miles (55 km) south of Tikrit. It is separated from the Falluja-Ramadi “probing” arena by about 75 miles (120 miles). US troops have begun advancing on this enclave and reached as far as Balad, only 23 miles (37 kilometers) north of Samarra. Saddam’s presence in this enclave means that his forces control a slice of central Iraq that is 100-110 mile (160-175 km) long and 60-70 mile (96 and 112 km) wide and delimited by Lake Tharthar in central-western Iraq and the Tigris River in the east. Our military sources report that inside this sweep of territory, American military strength is sparse save for a handful of small special forces units.

Intelligence sources tell DEBKA-Net-Weekly that these underground facilities were only recently been populated by skeleton command and operational centers representing all of the six Republican Guards divisions that took part in the war – al-Nida, Nebuchadnezzar, Hamurabi, al-Medina, Adnan and Baghdad – together with Fedayeen Saddam and Baathist militia contingents. Their officers initially stayed at home with their families, waiting to see which way the wind blew under the US administration before declaring their military, political, national or religious allegiances. By early June, US civil administrator Paul Bremer, who took over in Baghdad in mid-May, had made it clear he had no intention of mobilizing Saddam’s troops to the new Iraqi army or handing them paychecks. Then came the rumor that spread across Iraq that Saddam and sons were back, rebuilding the Iraqi army and offering double the salaries they earned before the war. Thousands began wending their way toward his Samarra enclave.

A senior Western intelligence source familiar with the Iraq scene confided to DEBKA-Net-Weekly this week: “I don’t want to criticize ambassador Bremer’s management,” he said. “It essentially represents policy dictated from Washington and is based on a rule set in concrete: The US administration may not recruit ex-soldiers who belonged to any of Saddam’s elite units for military and civil administration posts. The effect of those restrictions,” the source pointed out, “was to provide the former Iraqi ruler with a potential reserve force of up to one million trained and disaffected combatants who might be ready to fight for his comeback. Half are ex-army men, half members of the ruling Baath party which Bremer dissolved.”

It is estimated that between 12,000 and 14,000 men have begun drawing salaries against Saddam’s account. “Since the underground complexes contain vast amounts of military equipment and munitions – enough to sustain months of fighting – it must be admitted that some of the elite units we thought had scattered may be under arms again,” said the source.

Saturday, the US administration was working hard to launch a 25-member governing council for its first meeting on Sunday, July 13, the first Iraqi executive body in government in Baghdad since the overthrow of the Baath regime. Representatives of Iraq’s main seven political groups and independents will be tasked with writing a constitution and organizing elections.

DEBKAfile’s analysts suggest that the US initiative to start handing over power to Iraqis may have come too late now that the deposed ruler appears to be setting up a military presence in the heart of the country. Some of the newly appointed counselors, while cooperating with the Americans, may also in secret be taking care to cover their backs - just in case Saddam Hussein ever comes back.

DEBKAfile will continue its examination of the current situation in Iraq and the direction it is taking in a second article Sunday night.

U.S. Buildup Around Iraq Continues

THE LATEST EXAMPLE of the buildup could be seen on Friday in Norfolk, Va., where a Dutch-flagged cargo ship chartered by the U.S. military was preparing to ferry port-opening equipment to the Persian Gulf.
       The ship, which was expected to set sail later in the day, was carrying landing crafts, tugboats, and forklifts for hauling gear ashore.
       The strategy behind the slow, steady buildup of equipment in the gulf region is meant to shorten the timeline dramatically for troops to get there should President Bush order military action against Iraq.
       On Friday, Bush warned that U.N. approval a new resolution calling for disarmament by Saddam Hussein was a “final test.”
       Unless Saddam fully cooperates with weapons inspectors, he faces “the severest consequences,” Bush said.

IN POSITION
       Throughout the region — from the Persian Gulf to the Horn of Africa to Central Asia — there are at least 63,000 U.S. troops.
       While nearly 14,000 of those troops are focused on operations in Afghanistan, the bulk of those forces is in a position to participate should the decision be made to attack Iraq in the weeks or months ahead.
       The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group is in the area — and F14s and F/A18s are flying missions over southern Iraq as part of coalition patrols of no-fly zones.
       Those jets — along with Air Force F16s flying from Kuwait — are striking Iraq’s air defenses
       in the south in response to the firing of Iraqi missiles or anti-aircraft guns at U.S. and British jets on patrol.

These patrols also enable pilots to familiarize themselves with terrain they may fly over in a war.
       Pilots also have been conducting mock bombing runs on certain targets in southern Iraq,
       military officials said.
       Air Force planes operating out of the Incirlik base in Turkey are monitoring the northern no-fly zone in Iraq.
       Meanwhile, steaming toward the gulf is the USS Constellation battle group, which is slated to replace the Lincoln. Next month the USS Harry S. Truman battle group is scheduled to leave Norfolk, Va., to relieve the USS George Washington, currently in the Mediterranean.

In other words, by mid-December, four carrier battle groups could all be in striking distance of Iraq.
       Slowly and steadily, the U.S. military has been building up its headquarters and staff in the gulf region.
       The Central Command’s war headquarters will be based in Qatar under current plans, officials said. Gen. Tommy Franks and his staff will give it a test run during a December command post exercise called Internal Look.
       Army officials in Georgia and Germany, as well as Marine officials in California, also are
       setting up shop in Kuwait, likely to be a major staging ground for ground efforts in any conflict.

AIR POWER
       The Air Force is ensconced in an air operations center at Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, from where patrols over the southern no-fly zone of Iraq are coordinated and the air war over Afghanistan also was run.
       While Saudi Arabia provides a command hub for air strikes now, jets are flown mainly from Kuwait and aircraft carriers — not from the base.
       To date, Saudi Arabia has given mixed signals over whether it will allow the base to be used for an attack on Iraq.

n an effort to prepare for any coming conflict, the Air Force is building special hangars to house B2 stealth bombers on the British-run island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
       The hangars would enable the Missouri-based bombers to be within eight hours of Iraq, instead of flying roundtrip from the United States.

WATCHING THE INSPECTORS
       If the United States were to stick to earlier timelines — which anticipated a faster agreement at the United Nations — a key decision awaits military and political leaders in December: whether to send thousands of troops from Germany to Kuwait to be on hand for a potential action against Iraq.
       Based on the current timeline — which depends on at least some degree of cooperation from Iraq — it could be February before military action could be ordered.
       Meanwhile, Army troops from a brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division continue to train in the desert in Kuwait, while special operations forces are training in Jordan.
       A Marine Expeditionary Unit of approximately 2,200 Marines is also in the region, aboard U.S. Navy amphibious ships.
       As one officer explained, the idea behind the positioning all the military hardware has been to shorten the timeline for troop deployment to days instead of weeks and months “once the balloon goes up.”

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